Bali Expects Up to 7.2 Million Foreign Visitors in 2026: What the Numbers Show
How many people will visit Bali this year? The island’s governor now has a number: between 7.1 and 7.2 million international visitors. The Bali 2026 tourist arrivals forecast, given on October 16 and reported by Bali Discovery on October 21, would beat last year’s total, but the figures around it don’t line up perfectly, so here’s what was said and what we can check.
The short version: Governor Wayan Koster told the ASITA Bali regional conference in Jimbaran on Friday, October 16 that he expects 7.1 to 7.2 million foreign arrivals in 2026, above the 7.04 million recorded in 2025. Arrivals from January to September 30 were 5.2 million, according to the report, so the last three months of the year have to supply the rest.
What Was Said
ANTARA reported that Koster spoke at the 15th ASITA Bali Regional Conference in Jimbaran, where he also pushed for better access to north, east and west Bali so that tourism benefits aren’t concentrated in Denpasar, Badung and Gianyar. Bali Discovery, in a rewrite of a Tribun-Bali report, carried the arrivals forecast. It says tourism accounts for about 66% of Bali’s economy and nearly 45% of foreign tourist visits to Indonesia, with average spending of US$122 per day. Foreign exchange earnings are estimated at Rp 176 trillion, about 55% of Indonesia’s tourism-related foreign exchange.
The report also says the provincial government is keeping an eye on unlicensed accommodation sold through online travel agent platforms, a topic we’ve covered in our pieces on the villa licensing push and the short-term rental crackdown.
Doing the Arithmetic
What follows is our own rough arithmetic, not an official calculation. If 5.2 million foreign visitors had arrived by the end of September, a full-year total of 7.1 to 7.2 million needs about 1.9 to 2.0 million more between October and December. Spread over those 92 days, that is roughly 20,700 to 21,700 arrivals a day on average.
ANTARA Bali reported on October 20 that the head of Bali’s tourism office, I Wayan Sumarajaya, put foreign visits in mid-October at 22,000 to 24,000 a day. That is a little above the average the forecast needs, although the 5.2 million is a rounded figure and the reports don’t say exactly how the daily number is counted. We also can’t tell you how the final weeks of the year will go, or how January to September compares with the same period last year, because the reports we read don’t give it.
The Baseline Isn’t Quite Settled
The reports describe the 2025 total slightly differently. The forecast report says 7.04 million, while the same page quotes Koster as saying 7,050,000. A separate Bali Discovery report on his October 2 remarks to a visiting parliamentary budget committee gives 7.05 million foreign air arrivals for 2025, and 16.3 million total visits including domestic. The gap is only about 10,000, so we’d call it roughly 7.04 to 7.05 million rather than pick a side. For earlier context on the pace of growth, see our look at why growth slowed slightly this year.
What About the Fuel Crisis?
The tourism office says the fuel shortage had no drastic effect on visits, according to ANTARA Bali. Another report, though, quotes a Jatiluwih rice terraces operator saying visits there fell by nearly half at the height of the queues. We look at why those accounts differ in our Bali fuel crisis update.
What We Can’t Tell You
This is a forecast by the governor, not official statistics, and we haven’t seen the underlying data from the statistics agency. Our figures come from news reports, which in places repeat each other. The reports cover foreign arrivals only, so domestic travel is a separate story.
Quick Answers About Bali 2026 Tourist Arrivals
How many foreign visitors does Bali expect in 2026? Governor Koster projects 7.1 to 7.2 million, above the 7.04 million recorded in 2025.
How many have arrived so far? The report says 5.2 million from January to September 30.
Is the fuel crisis keeping visitors away? Accounts differ. The tourism office says there was no drastic effect on visits, while one attraction operator reported a large drop. See our fuel crisis update for the detail.
The Chimera Villas Take
Big forecasts are worth treating with care, and the arithmetic suggests this one is plausible but not guaranteed. What matters more for travelers is the mix of visitors Bali is trying to attract and the rules around where they stay. If you’re planning a stay, you can check our Seminyak villa availability at any time.
