Bali Arrivals 2026: Official Figures Show a Small Dip, but the Last Three Months Were Up

We’ve written quite a bit lately about the governor’s forecasts. Now the official numbers are in. Statistics Indonesia’s Bali office, BPS, says 5,237,128 foreign visitors arrived directly in Bali between January and September 2026. That’s 1.15% fewer than in the same months of 2025. The more encouraging part is that the last three months of that stretch were up on last year. So what do the Bali arrivals 2026 figures really tell us, and where do they leave the year-end target?

What BPS Reported

The figures come from BPS Bali’s head, Agus Gede Hendrayana Hermawan, as reported by ANTARA on November 2. July came in at 697,809 foreign arrivals, a touch above the 697,107 of a year earlier. August was 685,994, against 682,866. BPS says September was up too, by 2.36%, but the article gives the same figure, 650,169, for both September 2026 and September 2025. Something has clearly gone wrong with the numbers there, so we’re leaving September aside until it’s corrected.

Why is the year still down overall, then? BPS points to January, April, May and June, which were weaker than last year, and links that to geopolitical conflict. It credits the recent recovery to new flight routes and international events held on the island.

Where Visitors Are Coming From

Australia is still Bali’s biggest market by a long way, with 1,303,734 arrivals from January to September. China is second on 456,046, then India on 394,155, the UK on 230,010 and South Korea on 213,072.

Across Indonesia as a whole, things look brighter. BPS says the country had 12.01 million foreign arrivals from January to September, up 5.01% on last year, ANTARA reported. Visitors are staying longer, too: the average stay in the third quarter was 11.01 nights, up from 10.30 in the quarter before. Those national figures aren’t broken down for Bali, though, so we can’t say whether Bali’s visitors are staying longer as well.

How This Fits With the Governor’s Forecast

In October, Governor Wayan Koster said he expected 7.1 to 7.2 million foreign visitors this year, and on October 28 he said arrivals were holding steady at 19,000 to 24,000 a day. We covered both in our pieces on the arrivals forecast and on arrivals holding steady.

Here’s some rough arithmetic of our own, so please don’t treat it as an official figure. With 5.24 million in by the end of September, reaching 7.1 million needs about 1.86 million more in the last three months, roughly 20,000 a day. Reaching 7.2 million needs about 1.96 million, roughly 21,300 a day. A 7 million finish needs a bit less, around 19,000 a day. The governor’s daily range sits right around those numbers, so the target looks possible but not certain. December’s holiday rush will decide it.

What the Hotel Association Says

The Bali branch of the hotel and restaurant association, PHRI, still thinks 7 million is within reach. Its deputy chair, I Gusti Agung Ngurah Rai Suryawijaya, told detikBali on November 5 that he was optimistic. He said the drop was mainly among domestic travellers, while foreign visits were still stable. That’s his reading, and it’s worth knowing that the BPS figures above are for foreign arrivals only, so they don’t show the domestic side at all.

PHRI is backing the government’s VAT relief on domestic air tickets over the holidays, which we explained in our piece on the Christmas and New Year flight VAT cut, and says it has been on sales trips in Europe. He also asked for Bali’s image as a safe place to visit to be protected, and warned that the coming monsoon can wash marine litter up onto the beaches.

What Tourism Means for Bali’s Economy

BPS also reported that Bali’s economy grew 5.85% in the third quarter, with accommodation and food and drink the biggest contributor at 22.87% of the economy, according to an ANTARA video report. Put simply, the island still leans heavily on visitors, which is why every percentage point in these arrival numbers gets so much attention.

What We Can’t Tell You Yet

We haven’t seen BPS’s full tables ourselves, only news reports of them, and one of those reports has the September mix-up. October’s figures aren’t out yet either. Once they are, it’ll be much clearer whether the year finishes up or down.

Quick Answers About Bali Arrivals in 2026

How many foreign visitors came to Bali from January to September 2026? 5,237,128, according to BPS Bali, down 1.15% on the same period last year.

Were the recent months better? Yes. July and August were slightly up on last year, and BPS says September was too, although the published September figures don’t add up.

Which country sends the most visitors? Australia, with just over 1.3 million in the first nine months.

Will Bali reach 7 million this year? PHRI thinks so. On our rough maths, it needs somewhere around 19,000 to 21,000 arrivals a day for the rest of the year, depending on which target you use.

The Chimera Villas Take

A small dip with a rising trend isn’t bad news, and for travellers it mostly means Bali will be busy over the holidays, as it always is. If there are dates you really care about, book them early. You can check availability at our Seminyak villas whenever you’re ready.